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Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Australian Dollar Takes a Dive

ABC News out of Australiais reporting that experts are lowering expectations on the strength of the Australian dollar after slipping against the USD this past week.

In January, a panel of experts predicted that the Australian dollar wouldn't fall below the value of the greenback - but many are changing their mind after the AUD fell to .96 USD this past Friday. The panel includes an independent economist, a JPMorganChase executive, and even a high school student - leading to an interesting question as to just how much this group of "experts" is really qualified.

As we've been talking about currency exchange, this is a very interesting piece of news.

Of course, we know from class that this is because of many factors - currencies are constantly changing value compared to other currencies due to actions on the FOREX. The fall was likely due to a massive trade-off at the end of the month, increasing the supply of Australian dollars on the market.

In addition, we know that speculation can lead to a downward spiral as people continue to sell-off in panic. It will be interesting to see what happens to the AUD throughout the coming weeks. The Australian economy is currently strong and Australians are doing well to avoid debt, so nobody knows what could happen.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

City Analysis: Brisbane

Brisbane, located on the eastern coast of Australia, is one of the largest cities in the country. It is a major Australian port city.

Brisbane, Australia
On the hierarchy of central places, I would say that Brisbane is likely a national metropolis - but that doesn't mean it is necessarily similar to cities like Chicago - the national metropolis we mentioned in class. In fact, Brisbane has a lower population than Detroit - a city we discussed as a regional metropolis.

So then what makes Brisbane a national metropolis?

It's really a matter of perspective in my opinion - Chicago, with a population of 10,000,000+ has just 1/30 of the entire US population around it, though is considered a national metropolis. Brisbane on the other hand has over 2,100,000 people. With Australia's total population around 22,000,000, Brisbane has just under 10% of the entire nation's people living in or around it.

Of course, Brisbane isn't the largest central place in the entire country. Melbourne and Sydney both top it in terms of population. Cities like Darwin, Albany, Perth and all of the other cities are smaller.

As far as things that Brisbane offers that smaller areas might not, Brisbane houses the Queensland University of Technology - an entire university right downtown. In addition, there are subway systems designed to help people get around.

Brisbane has many other attributes, but I can't seem to find a China town area at all - something that a larger city like Sydney is bound to have. Of course, just because I can't see it on a map doesn't necessarily mean it isn't there!

EGT Executive Summary


From this market analysis, EGT advises incorporating in Australia and supplying sedans and limousines. Producing these vehicles abroad using cheaper labor and materials would be optimal – Australia has many ports, with the ports along the east and south coasts the most cost effective. With an expansive railway system, transporting containers filled with vehicles is very easy, and bringing them to dealerships is simply a matter of transferring containers onto trucks. Establishing dealerships will bring the most familiar environment for individual customers, and limousines should be marketed to large firms, with the possibility of purchasing entire fleets. Of course, it is also important to take into account the substantial taxes that both individuals and firms will have to pay. With population growth of approximately 1%, the market will continue to grow and increase profit margins for the company.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Record Shipping to Come

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Atlas, an iron ore company, expects to have record shipments this year.
"The iron ore miner says its on track to achieve shipping guidance of 7.4 million tons for 2013."
Of course, with the mining industry the largest industry in Australia, this comes as no surprise. Strong demand for iron ore is cited as the main cause for this increase in shipping volume.

This links directly to the ideas that we've been discussing in class - shipping goods overseas. As mentioned, Australia has many ports, and is isolated from other continents. This makes the use of freighters essential.

But iron ore isn't sent overseas in containers, like all other goods we've discussed so far. The idea of loading up a TEU container with iron ore is silly at the least, ridiculous at most. Iron ore is loaded upon a massive barge, known as bulk carriers. As far as size goes, most are considered capesize - the largest type of bulk carrier (93% of capesize boats are specialized to transport iron ore and coal). The use of such large ships is great for fuel and cost efficiency.

With such a large increase in loads of iron ore leaving Australia, we can expect that GDP should increase due to the increase in net exports.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

The Shipping Container's Effect on the World

Marc Levinson explains that the shipping container has radically changed the world in his book "The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger." Chapter one sums up the effects:

How much the container matters to the world economy is impossible to quantify. In the ideal world, we would like to know how much it cost to send one thousand men's shirts from Bangkok to Geneva in 1955, and to track how that cost changed as containerization came into use. Such data do not exist, but it seems clear that the container brought sweeping reductions in the cost of moving freight. From a tiny tanker laden with a few dozen containers that would not fit on any other vessel, container shipping matured into a highly automated, highly standardized industry on a global scale. An enormous containership can be loaded with a minute fraction of the labor and time required to handle a small conventional ship half a century ago. A few crew members can manage an oceangoing vessel longer than three football fields. A trucker can deposit a trailer at a customer's loading dock, hook up another trailer, and drive on immediately, rather than watching his expensive rig stand idle while the contents are removed.

The idea is that while we don't have precise data on the matter - for example we cannot compare shipping costs of a particular material from 1950 to now - it is clear that the container has revolutionized the way we ship things. From a laborious process on small ships that took many men to load, unload, and crew, we now have an efficient and automated process that requires as few as 20 men on a ship to reach the other side of the earth. In addition, unloading is simply a matter of moving the containers off of the ship - a feat easily accomplished by massive cranes in ports.

The author uses this as a large part of his argument for how globalization has taken hold. With such efficiency, we can assume that transportation costs are nearly zero. Items can reach the other side of the earth in as little as two weeks at less than the cost of a round-trip airline ticket - and that's thousands of tons of goods! With buyers and sellers able to find the area with the cheapest production cost, global competition is fostered and trade is encouraged.

As far as gaining and losing, I feel that larger companies are more apt to gain in this situation - they are already large market-share holders and have massive economies of scale and scope to start, while small businesses aren't able to outsource their labor and get supplies outside of local markets as easily, and they then must raise their prices above those sold by larger firms.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Mining Pushing up Stocks, Decreasing Revenues

Two reports out of Australia: investors are happy and the government isn't.

With mining stocks rising, the ASX is up to 5,200 and the All Ordinaries Index was up 1%. Strong trade with China has facilitated the rise, and shows evidence of a truly strengthening economy - though some analysts are skeptical. Economist believe in the numbers though, saying that the Australian economy is on the rise.

On the other hand, others are upset because of the resource tax credit. In Australia, new tax laws have been written to affect mining companies - and the revenues that were expected from this tax were far lower than expected. The Australian Treasury forecast $2 billion in revenue, and has thus far collected less than $130 million, due to tax credits given to the companies.

In all, these news article both show the power of the mining industry in Australia. As mentioned in the trade post, Australia is a huge exporter of iron ore, and is a leading mining county overall. The industry is so large that it massively affects the market and also has the lobbying power to influence the government into writing new tax laws that don't even majorly affect the companies.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Getting from Place to Place

There are three ways to get around: land, sea and air! We'll be examining Australia's situation for all three categories:

Land: Australia has 823,217 km of roads, a majority of which are unpaved. Australia has a large and interconnected highway system. 

Australia also has a developed railway system, both for freight and passengers. The rail network is comprised of over 40,000km of rails, most of which is publicly owned. Most recently, a railway was completed in 2004, allowing for transit between Adelaide and Darwin. Freight is performed by private companies while public transit is a mixture of government and private operations.

An interesting note about the Australian railway is that colonies built independently of one another when first starting the project. London advised Australia to adopt a standard gauge for rails, in case of the event that they ever wanted to integrate between colonies, but the colonies didn't take the advice. Because of this, there are still some areas of track that are unused.

Sea (more generally, water): As far as internal waterways go, Australia doesn't have too much. With 2,000 km of waterways, (mainly used for recreation on Murray and Murray-Darling river systems) (2011) Australia is 43rd for water transportation within the country.

Of course, Australia has a lot of navigation in the ocean surrounding the country.  There are ports in
Brisbane, Cairns, Dampier, Darwin, Fremantle, Gladstone, Geelong, Hay Point, Hobart, Jervis Bay, Melbourne, Newcastle, Port Adelaide, Port Dalrymple, Port Hedland, Port Kembla, Port Lincoln, Port Walcott and Sydney, with most being bulk carrier and cargo.

Air: Australia is home to  467 airports, 333 of which have paved runways (I'm not sure I would ever want to land on an unpaved runway, but maybe it isn't so bad). Australia has four major airlines: JetStar, Tiger, Virgin Blue and Qantas. From what I've collected, the first two are generally the cheapest, though the last two are more comfortable. Australia also has one heliport.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Australia's International Affairs

Australia exports many commodities, including coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, machinery and transport equipment. Interestingly, Australia is the world's largest coal exporter, accounting for nearly 30% of all of the world's coal exports. Much of this coal is exported to China, which has large energy demands.

Australia's imports are items such as machinery and transport equipment, computers and office machines, telecommunication equipment and parts, crude oil and petroleum products. Australia spends approximately $240B on imports, and exports in the neighborhood of $260B a year, based on 2012 economic estimates from the World Book.

Australians use the Australian dollar (AUD) to purchase their goods, which is currently valued at 1.06AUD/USD. It is common to evaluate this exchange rate in Australia, as the strength of the AUD vs. the greenback is important in estimating the strength of exports in future months and years. The AUD has not fluctuated greatly in recent years, staying stable around a range of .97AUD/USD and 1.05AUD/USD.

Many immigrants to Australia come from the United Kingdom, as well as New Zealand. While there are many Americans that move to Australia, the immigration from the UK dwarfs that in proportion - for every one American that becomes a permanent resident in Australia, more than 10 do so from the UK. Other countries with high immigration rates to Australia include China and India - a no-brainer considering their proximity.

As for emigration, Australians are emigrating to the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand, with just under 90,000 people leaving permanently in 2010-2011.

Australia has few international affairs, as foreign policy tends to be noninvasive. Interestingly, Australia asserts land and maritime claims over Antarctica. They also have an unsettled dispute with India over the extent of their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) boundary. Tasmania (though having the cleanest air in the world), is a large producer of opiates, which leads to some problems over government regulation of growth. Other than that, it would seem that Australia is pretty set.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

China Relations

According to The Australian:
AUSTRALIA'S economic relationship with China is not yet a reciprocal one and needs considerably more attention -- including by government to follow up new arrangements agreed during Julia Gillard's recent visit -- if it is to broaden beyond today's resources focus.
 Of course, many nations are currently trying to become trade partners with China, as they have a large and quickly growing economy. Australia currently isn't on particularly great terms.

We've been talking in class about exports, imports and tourism, and this relates. If Australia cannot form a more beneficial partnership with China, they will increase their trade deficit further by continuing to import more from China than they currently export.

As far as fixing this situation, people aren't sure - China still has a strong comparative advantage when it comes to manufacturing goods, though Chinese workers are demanding higher wages as of late, so that may end sometime in the near future.

What is good news for Australia is that exports may be increased due to tourism, as tourism is included in the exports category. The Chinese market for tourism brings in around $3 billion a year for Australia and is expected to grow substantially over the next ten years as GDP/capita increases in China. Even if Australia cannot generate a better position trading with China, tourism may be what saves them.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Information and Transaction

Gresham's Law is an interesting one - that given time, inferior goods will drive high quality goods out of a market.

McMillan uses this law to demonstrate the effects of imperfect information in a market - that is, having either the buyer or seller know more about the good being bought or sold than the other. In the example of Indian milk, buyers that are unable to differentiate between 100% milk and a watered-down 60% milk 40% water mixture end up willing to pay a price that is lower than the cost to produce the best milk, forcing those suppliers out of business. Eventually, only poor-quality milk is being produced, forcing the price even lower.

With perfect information though, this problem is eliminated. Buyers can be sure of what they are purchasing, and sellers can't get away with ripping off customers. Both buyers and honest producers benefit.

So is there perfect information everywhere? Is the market a perfect machine that brings everyone to always get the best quality items at the lowest prices?

Of course, perfect information does not exist everywhere. In reality, if one agent holds more information than the other, they have a distinct advantage in the bargaining process.

Let's look at life insurance as an example - the buyer must talk to an agent about buying insurance. The insurance company, prior to meeting the customer, has no knowledge about this person's health. Thus the buyer has an advantage here, and may be able to get a better deal than if the seller was perfectly informed.

On the other hand, look at used-car salesmen. The buyer knows nothing about the car in question, while the seller has a detailed history. Who wins here? Of course, there are companies and businesses that strive to help the consumer stay informed, but one still can't be certain of the car's history.

So if perfect information is so hard to achieve, can we at least have zero transaction costs?

Not necessarily, though the Internet certainly helps to bring us as close as possible.

McMillan notes that although the Internet allows us to research things and know far more than we would have 20 years ago, transaction costs still exist - whether they are money you have to pay or simply opportunity costs. A concrete example McMillan uses talks of paying $.10 to talk to each merchant. In a more realistic way, that $.10 is time that you could have been doing something else. Transactions cannot take place if the buyers and sellers do not locate one another, and this search does not always come free.


Tuesday, April 16, 2013

In Search of a Fez

A Fez of the Heart by Jeremy Seal illustrates the dramatic change in culture in Turkey of the past 20 years - from allowing nudity on beaches to rejecting the fez, which Seal calls quintessential to Turkish culture. But why the sudden shift in attitude?

This comparison between nudity and fez hats is probably the most interesting point of the passage. Turkey is an Islamic nation where exposing of flesh is frowned upon - yet the fez is also "Islam," as noted in the passage.

Seal seems to think that it comes down to business and tourism.

When Pomegranate was not popular tourist attraction, bikini-clad women were not even allowed into towns, let alone topless, and there were not many places to stay. Offering food and shelter was seen as a hospitality gesture, and there were many farmers. These conditions all changed once residents began to realize the opportunity to capitalize on the tourists' willingness to pay for shelter, food and trips to ruins. There were many less farmers and many more places to stay. And Turkey embraced the wants of the west for the sake of good business.

And so we see why Seal makes the comparison between nudity and the fez - it comes down to incentive for the Turkish people. They allow tourists to be naked and embrace the fact because it brings in business. As to why they reject the fez - neither Seal nor I can be certain.

People are drawn to Australia for its distinct culture and beautiful reefs. As mentioned in this post, the Great Barrier Reef accounts for much of Australia's tourism, as it cannot be found anywhere else in the world. This is also true of the Sydney Opera House of course, as it is an iconic structure.


Australian Tourism

Tourism is a large industry in Australia, accounting for just over 2% of Australian's GDP. Interestingly, this large tourism number is mainly from domestic tourists - people already living in Australia exploring the country. About 73% of all tourism in Australia is from this source. Another large source is New Zealand, with tourists often purchasing tourism packages that pass through all of the major attractions.

The largest attraction when visiting Australia is, of course, the Great Barrier Reef, which attracts nearly 2 million visitors each year to enjoy the colorful corals and aquatic life. Australian officials have been careful to minimize the total impact people have had on the reef, both for environmental and economic reasons.

Another attraction is the Sydney Opera House - the iconic building in Sydney built to resemble sails on the open ocean.

Australia has over 500 national parks, and many other marine parks and World Heritage areas. Australia is home to the largest number of different marsupials, such as the kangaroo and koala. This diverse wildlife also spurs tourism and increases demand for exploration through the outback.

As for museums, the oldest museum in Australia is the appropriately named Australian Museum, which was established in 1827. It is home to a large range of different displays and welcomes kids to learn about history. Other museums include the National Museum of Australia and the Museum of Sydney. The Museum of Sydney is particularly popular, due to its prime location in one of the most popular tourist cities in the country.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Australian Economics

Australia has a large economy - it is ranked as the 19th largest in the world with a GDP of nearly $1T.

Some statistics about Australia (from the World Factbook):
  • GDP: $960.7 billion (2012 est.)
  • GDP per capita: $42,400 (2012 est.)
  • Life expectancy: 81.7 years
  • Poverty rate: NA%
  • Literacy rate: 99%
  • Unemployment rate: 5.2% (2012 est.)
  • Inflation: 2.1% (2012 est.)
An interesting point to notice is that Australia's poverty rate is NA% - implying that nobody lives below the poverty line.

Climate in Australia is diverse - though the air is generally arid, Australia enjoys a temperate climate in the southeast and a tropical climate in the north. Much of Australia is uninhabited due to the harsh heat in the outback. Queensland experiences the highest rainfall, and the many deserts make much of the land in the north and central regions of the country impossible to farm. Regardless, Australia is still able to produce wheat, barley, sugarcane, fruits, cattle, sheep, and poultry.

The labor force in Australia is 12.27 million workers, with nearly 70% in the services industry. Australia spends an equivalent of  5.1% of GDP on education, with each state determining its own education program. Post-secondary education comes in two forms, as mentioned on the Australian government's website:

"Each state has a Vocational Education and Training (VET) or Technical and Further Education (TAFE) system. VET prepares people for work in a career that does not need a university degree. Each state manages their system and meets at a national level to coordinate their effort. VET is transferable between all states. Study done in one state gains the same status in another state. Typically, a VET/TAFE course takes two years of study."
Australia exports coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, machinery and transport equipment, due to its large mining industry and equipment processing industry. Australia is also known for farming, producing chemicals, and steel production. Australia is the world's lead exporter of coal.



Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Australian Trade Deficit Shrinks


The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that in February, the trade deficit in Australia was $178 million. This number, compared to a $1.2 billion deficit in January and projected $1 billion deficit analyst forecasted, is odd to say the least.

Trade deficits are driven by two things: world demand for goods and the strength of the nation's currency. Each plays a large part in the overall market for foreign goods.

For example, Australia had predicted a larger deficit due to February being a short month, as well as the Chinese New Year lowering demand for key exports, such as coal and iron. Despite these predictions, exports were strong throughout the month.

The nation's currency also plays a large role in whether it has a trade deficit or not - and in a kind of strange way. A weaker currency leads to stronger exports - due to those good being comparatively cheaper in the country they're exported to. The AUD is currently quite strong though, and so the world demand must out-weigh this.

Each of these effects is, of course, determined by markets. World demand is a downward sloping demand function, and Australia is a large part of world supply for its output.

The FOREX, the foreign exchange market, is a supply and demand model for currency that changes the equilibrium prices of currencies. These two elements combine to determine if a country will be running a trade deficit or surplus.

While Australia hasn't run a trade surplus in over 12 months, it still kicks the crap out of the United States - which hasn't had a trade surplus since 1975.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Australian Culture

Australia has many interesting cultural aspects to it that make it both very interesting and unique.

Popular sports in Australia include cricket, rugby, netball and field hockey. Some popular athletes are Steven Hooker, Ian Thorpe and Cathy Freeman.

Musical taste in Australia seems to be very similar to here in the United States, with the Top 40 looking alike to our own. Currently, Mackelmore tops both charts, though with different songs.

Food in Australia sounds delicious. Barbecuing beef or lamb in the open air is considered a national tradition of sorts, which sounds right up my alley. Also, because most Australians live near the sea, the seafood is considered some of the best in the world. Vegemite is a popular spread used on sandwiches, and popular desserts include pavlova, a meringue dessert, and lamingtons, sponge cake with icing and coconut.

Australia has no official religion, though 63.9% of Australians report themselves as Christians. A growing proportion are irreligious, with nearly 20% of people saying they do not have a religious affiliation.

As far as national holidays go, one interesting national holiday is the queen's birthday, which is celebrated every year by all of Australia. Of course, there are holidays that the United States shares, such as Easter, New Years, and Christmas, but it's the holidays that are unique to Australia that are the coolest. For example, Australia Day is celebrated every year, marking the day the First Fleet - a group of 11 ships that left Britain for Australia in 1787, arrived at Sydney Cove. A more somber holiday is Aznac Day on April 25th - a day to remember servicemen and women.

Popular television shows are "Homeland," "Mad Med," and "Girls." Popular stars include both familiar names like Hugh Jackman and some that I've never even heard of, like Michael Catan.

Some news sources include:

Considering I might like to live there one day, it's good to know that Australia allows expats to apply for citizenship. Of course, expats can also check out forums and ask others about the country before heading over.

Australia is a constitutional monarchy with a reigning queen and three branches much like the U.S., possessing a legislative, executive and judicial branch of government. The prime minister is Julia Gillard - the first female prime minister in the country's history, who took office in 2010. Australia's queen is Elizabeth II, who began her reign in 1952.

And that pretty much sums up Australian culture! Hope you found it interesting!

Thursday, April 4, 2013

What Makes a Market?

Economists talk about markets all the time, but what exactly is a market, and what makes them useful?

John McMillan begins his book Reinventing the Bazaar by stating
"The dictionary defines a market as "a meeting together of people for the purpose of trade by private purchase and sale,"and "a public place where a market is held." This does not go deep enough though."
 If this is true, what does McMillan find to be sufficient to describe a market?

There are many aspects, though McMillan particularly emphasizes market design and the role of people in transactions.

On page 9 of his book, he writes:
"Market design consists of the mechanisms that organize buying and selling; channels for the flow of information; state-set laws and regulations that define property rights and sustain contracting and the market's culture, its self-regulating norms, codes and conventions governing behavior."
This is basically a rewording of the fundamental characteristics of a perfectly competitive market - reworded for the casual reader. From this, one can see that McMillan finds the perfectly competitive structure to be the most suitable to fit the description of a general "market," and I would agree. Modern markets need exactly the above, and with such a strongly interconnected global market, I feel that self-regulating norms will become more and more useful as intergovernmental action will be a lagging factor.

Of course, it doesn't stop there - McMillan also notes the importance of human interaction in the market structure.

Richard Dawkins described biological evolution as the actions of a "blind watchmaker," an intentionally ridiculous analogy to demonstrate that evolution happens not by the intention of an intelligent being, but by natural forces. McMillan brings forth this concept to illustrate that economic systems also evolve - but not as biological systems do. People - the agents of the market - are intelligent: they have the ability to walk away from deals they don't like and change aspects of the market structure over time. McMillan uses folk football as an example: as people played football, rules were established and upheld according to safety needs and player preferences, bringing forth sports we know today like soccer, rugby and American football.

McMillan also notes the inequality that arises from markets, saying
"Markets provoke clashing opinions. Some people revile them as the source of exploitation and poverty. Others extol them as the font of liberty and prosperity."
This, of course, stems from the fact that markets lead to to both winners and losers. I personally side with the latter opinion - entrepreneurs have the ability to take their ideas and prosper from their innovation and intelligence, and in a perfectly competitive market structure like the one above, consumers are able to purchase these goods at their lowest possible price as firms produce at the lowest possible cost.

And so while markets can be described very simply, they are also very complex, with a human element that cannot be predicted. While people's opinions differ on markets, they are still seen as the most economically efficient model for exchanging goods and services.




Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Why Didn't Native Americans Conquer Europe?

Why did history turn out the way it did? Why did the Old World conquer the New World and not the other way around?

Jared Diamond tries to answer these questions and more in his talk Why Did Human History Unfold Differently On Different Continents For The Last 13,000 Years.

Diamond begins by noting that "many, or even most" people feel that there is a biological reason for this disparity. As a biologist, Diamond doesn't buy this argument - saying that there is no empirical information to show that one group is more intelligent or likely to conquer than another.

Diamond's strategy is to evaluate each country as it was 13,000 years ago, incorporating history and economics to come to an answer.